Love him or hate him, Trump’s leadership style has always been a disruptor. A second inning could either deepen the India-US bond or push it to the brink—what’s the likely story and how prepared New Delhi is?
The story of India and the United States is one of two vibrant democracies navigating a world in flux. From shared democratic ideals to strategic convergence, the bilateral relationship has been shaped by commonalities and friction alike. This relationship has transformed into a strategic alignment in recent decades, buoyed by converging interests in defense, trade and regional stability. One of the most dramatic chapters of this saga remains the presidency of Donald Trump. His first term was marked by paradoxes. While he championed the Indo-Pacific strategy by reinforcing India’s strategic role in countering China’s rise; on the flip side, his penchant for transactional diplomacy often left India navigating a tightrope. His first term marked a distinct departure from previous administrations that resulted from the blending of economic nationalism, assertive military posturing and diplomatic deal-making.
It’s been more than a month, the US is again a Trump country!
In geopolitics, second chances come with higher stakes. The stage is now set for another chapter of ‘Trump diplomacy’. For India, the plot twists could range from trade tariffs to defense pacts—a mix of opportunity and challenge. From the Oval Office to Raisina Hill, the corridors of power are alive with speculation.
The re-election of Donald Trump as US President stirs significant discourse in the sphere of international relations. As President Trump’s potential second term looms on the horizon, it beckons questions about the trajectory of this complex partnership. This dawn promises both continuity and change—a fresh canvas waiting to be painted with the hues of shared interests and inevitable discord. Would the volatile, transactional Trump doctrine align with India’s aspirations of global prominence, or would it deepen the fault lines in their engagement?
What do Experts Say? – Shyam Saran in an editorial for Indian Express writes “For India and the current political dispensation, a Trump presidency does not create the same anxieties as among other US allies and partners. One asset is the obvious personal affinity between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There appears to be confidence that since Trump is likely to be transactional in approach, deals can be made with him even in fraught economic and commercial relationships. Trump is less likely to put pressure on India on human rights and communal issues though the ongoing judicial process involving alleged assassination attempts against American and Canadian Khalistani elements will not go away.” These heavy-worded expressions do summarize the ongoing political calculations of New Delhi. It is both the tough route and cakewalk, a tango of risk and reward. Personal relations of political leadership may bring in new dimensions and re-strengthen the older ties; however, the uncertainty contemporary times bring, there is little hope to resort to.
Storm Clouds Ahead in the Relationship
Trade Wars and Tariffs: Deja Vu? – Trump’s trade policy targeted many of the closest allies and India was no exception. Under his administration, the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for India was revoked which impacted exports. Should Trump return, there is a likelihood that the ‘trade wars’ could resume, this time potentially in an amplified form. Editor-in-chief N. Ravi of The Hindu notes that Trump’s previous tenure leaned on tariffs as a negotiation tool, a tactic that strained US-India trade. Figures from India’s Ministry of Commerce reveal that under the Trump administration, bilateral trade was marked by frequent confrontations, with Indian exports to the US declining by over 10% due to tariff increases. The Indian government will likely strategize for more resilient economic diversification. In such a scenario, experts argue that bilateral trade negotiations could hinge on India’s ability to make concessions in areas like digital taxation or e-commerce where Trump’s business-centric approach may demand compliance.
Visa Policies are a Diplomatic Hot Potato! Trump’s previous immigration policies hit Indian tech workers hard as H-1B visa restrictions disrupted the flow of talent. This setback (intended to protect American jobs) caused tensions in a sector where the US has long benefited from Indian expertise. Should Trump reapply similar visa restrictions, it may drive Indian tech companies to refocus on regional hubs or domestic markets. Data from Nasscom highlights that visa restrictions under Trump’s first term directly affected the Indian IT sector leading to losses exceeding $2 billion.
Climate Contradictions – Trump’s stance on climate change could pose a diplomatic challenge for India which seeks active partnerships to address sustainability issues. With the Biden administration restoring US commitment to the Paris Agreement, India found a partner in pursuing clean energy initiatives. However, Trump’s historical stance on climate is marked by withdrawal from multilateral climate accords and promotion of fossil fuels — could create obstacles for India’s environmental diplomacy. For instance, reports from the Indian Express point to a rise in renewable energy projects between India and the US under the Biden administration. As detailed in its National Action Plan on Climate Change, India’s commitments would benefit from sustained foreign partnerships. If Trump resumes his previous environmental policies, India may need to diversify its green partnerships looking to the EU and other climate-aligned nations to sustain its sustainability goals. India has already invested in the national development of renewable energy solutions.
Shared Horizons of US-India Partnership
Strengthening Shields, Fostering Trust – Under President Trump’s first tenure, India and the United States achieved significant milestones in defense cooperation which laid a strong foundation for future engagements. The strategic partnership underpinned by foundational agreements like BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement), LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement), COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) is expected to have stability and continuity in defense cooperation. In a second Trump term, this defense partnership could gain further momentum. The US views India as a critical player in its Indo-Pacific strategy and Trump’s focus on countering China’s regional influence aligns with India’s own strategic goals. Military exercises like Malabar and continued arms sales including platforms such as Predator drones could bolster India’s defense preparedness. Scholars emphasize that these collaborations not only strengthen bilateral ties but also reinforce India’s position as a regional power.
QUAD Quandry or the Quest? – The revival and strengthening of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) marked a significant development in India-US relations during Trump’s first term. This grouping which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia underscores a shared commitment to a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Trump’s support for the Quad has provided India with a valuable platform to enhance its strategic engagements and counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region. A second Trump presidency could see the Quad further institutionalized with expanded cooperation in areas like maritime security, supply chain resilience and infrastructure development.
Trumponomics is marked by economic synergies beyond trade tensions of transnationalism. The United States remains one of India’s largest trading partners and a key source of foreign direct investment (FDI). Trump’s emphasis on boosting manufacturing and supply chain diversification presents opportunities for India to attract American investments, particularly in sectors like technology, renewable energy and pharmaceuticals. Moreover, the collaboration in emerging technologies including Artificial Intelligence, 5G and space exploration underscores the potential for deeper economic engagement.
Cultural Bridge that joins! – With its significant economic and political clout, the Indian-American diaspora has been a cornerstone of India-US relations. This community has played a pivotal role in fostering mutual understanding and advancing India’s interests in the US Trump’s recognition of the diaspora’s contributions as evidenced by events like the ‘Howdy, Modi!’ rally in Houston highlights its importance in bilateral ties. A second term for President-Elect could see continued engagement with the diaspora by further enhancing people-to-people connections. By leveraging this soft power asset, India can strengthen cultural ties and ensure sustained advocacy for its priorities within US policymaking circles. Editorials in The Hindu emphasize that the diaspora serves as a crucial conduit for economic, educational and technological collaboration between the two nations.
Scripting the Next Chapter
In an era of uncertainty, the India-US relationship must stand as a beacon of what two democracies can achieve together—a testament to resilience, cooperation and the enduring power of shared values. To mitigate trade disputes, sector-specific agreements focusing on mutually beneficial areas such as artificial intelligence, energy and pharmaceuticals could offer a way forward. Strengthening defense ties while preserving India’s autonomy will be equally critical. On the immigration front, proactive diplomacy will be essential to safeguard the interests of skilled Indian professionals. In a Trump 2.0 scenario, managing unpredictability will be India’s greatest challenge. Institutionalizing bilateral mechanisms and cultivating bipartisan support in the US could provide the stability needed to weather policy swings. At the same time, India must continue diversifying its global partnerships, ensuring that its rise on the world stage is not overly reliant on any single power.
The stakes are high and the challenges immense, but so too are the opportunities. As the world’s geopolitical chessboard becomes increasingly multipolar, India must navigate these complexities with precision; thereby leveraging its relationship with the US while maintaining its strategic autonomy. The potential rewards are substantial but so are the risks that require India to be adaptive and resourceful in the face of renewed bilateral complexities. C Raja Mohan in his article writes. “Unilateral development of new technologies, bilateralism in trade and economic cooperation, and like-minded coalitions in finding solutions to regional challenges are likely to gain ground in the next few years. India has already moved in this direction…It is now part of several minilateral groups that seek to develop new technologies to address regional and global challenges as well as construct new global norms. These include the Quadrilateral Forum, the Mineral Security Partnership, the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence and the Artemis Accords. India needs to invest more vigorously in these initiatives until the conditions for productive multilateralism re-emerge in the global arena.”
Looking ahead, the India-US partnership must be anchored in resilience and adaptability. Ultimately, this story is one of shared dreams and occasional discord, a partnership shaped by the ebb and flow of global politics. As two democracies with the capacity to lead, their collaboration is not just bilateral—it is a cornerstone of global stability. Whether through diplomacy, trade or strategic vision; the onus is on both nations to script the next chapter of this evolving story.
About the Author
Akshaa Jain is a politico enthusiast and learner pursuing Political Science Honours from Delhi University. She has a keen interest in elocutions, debating and public speaking. She is experienced in research and content writing with demonstrated success in the social impact sector, research skills, data analysis and literature surveys. She writes articles, research papers, creative pieces, etc. on international relations, philosophy and women rights.
With her contribution to various organizations like the ASEAN Youth Organization, WICCI, Girl Up Club, International Parliament Journal and Youth Recommendations Committee (India) to UNCSW 68; she has worked in diverse work profiles and on varied socio-political issues. With the motto of “Serving mankind, Celebrating community”; she aims to bring about a positive change-driven impact.